With the move onto a new wholesale electricity market price forecasting has become even more important. Energy companies have to work in uncertain conditions. In difficult situations such as these, price forecasting is a competitive advantage for market players.
The Forecsys solution for energy companies forecasts electricity prices and consumer demand and makes for more efficient work on the wholesale market. It substantially reduces operational losses on the fluctuating market as well as monthly fines for price deviations.
The Energy4Cast (Forecsys Planning Solution) system creates the most accurate forecasts of future electricity demand on a daily basis for various DPC as well as day-ahead and fluctuating market price forecasts which take into account a range of factors.
On the basis of the demand forecasts and predicted price fluctuations for the day-ahead and fluctuating markets, the system recommends the ideal number of orders to be made. As it calculates the number of orders, the System carries out a daily evaluation of the financial risks and is thereby able to recommend the volume of orders which will prevent unnecessary losses.
The accuracy of the forecasts and other performance indicators is re-evaluated on a daily basis, making the forecasting results as transparent as possible.
The automated recommendations regarding the ideal number of orders to be placed frees employees from performing ritual tasks, allowing them to concentrate on those special circumstances in which it is not possible to use automated forecasts. This also reduces the scope for human error and operational risks.
The forecasting solution for the energy market was developed by Forecsys using Goods4Cast, a demand forecasting platform, used in some of the largest Russian retail chains as the most accurate and effective system of automated demand and stock reserve management forecasting.
During the design of Energy4Cast we used our experience of developing energy forecasting systems for the North European energy market NordPool, with which Forecsys worked from 2001-2004.
The accuracy of the forecast can be tested using the data of several participating companies on the wholesale electricity market. On average, the accuracy of forecasts increases by 10-30% when the system is used.